[DATA] Pacific region data

[matamadio]

Dataset overview

Data produced from risk modelling work in the Pacific, and also some other risk modelling projects that other colleagues in the Crisis and Disaster Risk Finance team have worked on previously.

Dataset details and structure

Pacific Island Nation Risk Modelling
2025-02-10
Author: Paul Wilson, Consultant.
Prepared for the World Bank as an overview and introduction to the various modelling and technical projects conducted primarily in support of PCRIC.

Summary
2 Archives have been created covering Admin Materials (ToRs, Proposal etc., as well as all deliverables (Data, Reports, etc.):

1. Modelling prior to FY25
   Archive of projects conducted by PCRIC (via the world bank’s direct support for PCRIC) during 2021 – 2023.
   Delivered 2024-07-24

2. People impacted modelling
   Archive of ‘people impacted’ risk modelling conducted by the World Bank and provided to PCRIC
   Delivered 2025-01-31

A brief description of key sections of each archive is outlined below.

 

Archive 1

An archive of projects conducted by PCRIC (via the world bank’s direct support for PCRIC) during 2021 – 2023.
This archive is comprehensive, with meeting PCRIC internal notes/presentation, analysis on catastrophe events that occurred over 2022-2023 as well as various ad-hoc short projects.
There are however 2 key folders which should be maintained as reference material - Prior Projects and Core Projects

Prior Projects [96 Prior Projects]
This folder contains an archive of materials collected by Paul Wilson (consultant to PCRIC) as on-boarding, covering prior modelling projects and data
Key subfolders

• AIR SOPAC model [AIR SOPAC model]
  ­ Documentation, contracts and supplementary information on the development of AIR models for Tropical Cyclone (wind, surge and rainfall) and Earthquake (shake and tsunami) undertaken in 2010/11.

• PCRAFI [PCRAFI]
  ­ All output and deliverables from the AIR SOPAC model provided to the PCRAFI project.

• DHI XSR Project [DHI XSR Project]
  ­ Documentation and deliverables from the 2018 “PCRAFI Pacific Rainfall Hazard Data, Loss Data and Management for Parametric Insurance Project” undertaken by DHI.
  ­ The primary objective of the project was to explore the potential development of a excess rainfall and drought modelling to support PCRIC policies for those perils.
  ­ See the final report in that folder as the key reference.

• CP XSR Project [CP XSR Project]
  ­ Documentation and deliverables from the 2020 “Feasibility Study of Excess Rainfall and Drought Insurance for Pacific Island States” undertaken by Celsius Pro.
  ­ See the component 1 and 2 reports in that folder as the key reference.
  ­ Please note also the WTW commissioned critical review of the analysis / work - “4. WTW Review of CelsiusPro work.pdf”

Core Projects [01 Core Projects]
This folder contains an archive of materials developed during 2022 – 2023 in support of PCRIC.

• 01 Model Recalibration [01 Model Recalibration]
  ­ An archive of additional model meta-data procured from AIR (under-strict non-disclosure agreements) to increase transparency around the AIR SOPAC models used for PCRICs modelled loss insurance policies.
  ­ Includes: Stochastic Cyclone track sets, Earthquake epicentres, loss results split by sub-peril.

• 02 Model Replacement [02 Model Replacement]
  ­ A project archive for work conducted with GNS / RiskScape to:
  a) update and refresh the exposure and population data across the Pacific Island Countries,
  b) extract geographically granular output from AIR SOPAC model viewer,
  c) create updated risk profiles based on AIR original modelling scaled to the updated exposure,
  d) developed an instance of the RiskScape platform to access this updated risk profiles.

• 03 Fitness for Purpose [03 Fitness for Purpose]
  ­ A project conducted with WTW to assess key assumptions under-pinning PCRIC policies:

1. Assessment of the Relationship between Loss / Damages and Emergency Costs
2. Development of an alternative approach to proxy emergency response needs in a Pacific Island context
3. Evaluation of the benefits of a modelled loss parametric policy design versus the possibility of adopting a simpler ‘pure’ parametric / parametric index-based policy design
   ­ See project reported in this archive folder for detailed project reports / conclusions

• 04 Excess Rainfall [04 Excess Rainfall]
  ­ A project conducted with JBA to deliver risk analysis and support the design and development of a flood / excess rainfall insurance policy for Pacific Island countries.
  ­ Project was extensive and ultimately led to JBA redeveloping their Global Flood Event Set and Global Flood Model initially for the Pacific Island Countries
  ­ Final deliverables are in the folder “04 Excess Rainfall\06 Deliverables\2024-02-07\” which include modelled loss and population impacted for all 14 Pacific Island Countries based on the GNS developed exposure data set (developed in Project “02 Model Replacement”)

• 05 Drought [05 Drought]
  ­ A project conducted with WTW to explore in more detail the requirement of a Drought insurance policy for Pacific Island Countries. Project was conducted in 2 phases:

  • Phase 1: “Definition, Demand, and Needs Assessment to Support Parametric Drought Insurance for Pacific Island Countries Through PCRIC”
  • Phase 2: “PCRIC Drought Insurance Phase II: Risk Assessment and Modelling Support for Parametric Drought Insurance”
    ­ See project reported in this archive folder for detailed project reports / conclusions

 

Archive 2 People impacted modelling

Archive of ‘people impacted’ risk modelling conducted by the World Bank and provided to PCRIC.
In 2023, building on the work undertaken by in the prior projects the decision was taken to develop risk analytics of ‘people impacted’ to support a transition of PCRIC prior ‘modelled loss’ policies to either simpler parametric designs (cat-in-a-shape) or modelled population impacted policies. (see specifically the reports and work by WTW in “03 Fitness for Purpose”)
Tenders were sought from catastrophe risk modellers with existing available solutions for the region that could conduct analysis quickly in sufficient time to be used with the 2024-2025 policies
The work was supported by WTW (PCRIC’s reinsurance broker, who maintained overall responsibility for the design of PCRIC insurance policies).
Across all modelling work a common exposure dataset of population was used. This was developed by JBA building on the work undertaken in 2022-2023 but was updated and refined in 2024 (as documented in this archive).

There are 3 key folders which should be maintained as reference material:
XSR [XSR]
A project archive for the work conducted with JBA to update the risk analysis of population impacted by excess rainfall for Pacific Island Countries based on an updated and refined Population disaggregation method, based on lessons learnt in developing a policy for Fiji and extending this to smaller islands such as Samoa.
Note: the administrative population is still as defined by GNS in the ‘02 Model Replacement’ project (above)
Key deliverables:

1. Updated Disaggregated Population: 02 Deliverables\PCRIC_Agg_pop9802\ (PCRIC_Agg_pop9802 used in all projects below)
2. Updated Risk Profiles: 02 Deliverables\JBA_Risk_Profiles_14Countries\ (JBA_Risk_Profiles_14Countries)
3. Change Impact Reports: 02 Deliverables\WB_PCRIC_ChangeImpactReports\ (Final)
   Note: as part of the WB QA concern were raised about the robustness of the modelling for Papua New Guinea. The Risk Profiles for PNG should be used with caution and only in consultation with JBA.

TC [TC]
A project archive for the work conducted with REASK to deliver risk analysis of population impacted by Tropical Cyclones
Analysis used JBAs disaggregated population.
Focus was on wind impacts, but REASK also provided historic events including surge and rainfall
Please refer to final reports

• Reask Component 1 Report - 170724 – Final.pdf (Reask Component 1 Report - 170724 - Final.pdf)
• Reask Component 2&3 Report - 210125 – Final.pdf (Reask Component 2&3 Report - 210125 - Final.pdf) – which contains details of the data delivered.

Key deliverables

1. Folder “02 Deliverables\20241220 Final\Probabilistic Population Impacted” (Probabilistic Population Impacted) - by country, by event population impacted by category of storm
2. File “DeepCyc_Tracks_v208_Vmax_50km_10min_66k_per_Country_ERA5_1980_2023.xlsx” in “02 Deliverables\20241220 Final\Probabilistic Tracks within 50km Buffer\” (Probabilistic Tracks within 50km Buffer) which links each stochastic event to a historic reference season and associated climate pattern (PDO, ENSO etc.)

EQ [EQ]
A project archive for the work conducted with Temblor to deliver risk analysis of population impacted by earthquakes
Analysis used JBAs disaggregated population.
Focus was on ground shaking, but Temblor also provided a prototype approach to Tsunami impacts.
Please refer to final reports located in “03 Deliverables\02 Final\Reports and Slide Decks”
Key EQ / Ground Shaking deliverables (all in Earthquake Results)

1. Stochastic event set info: EVENTSET_v4_WTW.csv
2. Stochastic event set population impacted by MMI category: XX_mmi_all.csv
3. Historic (Observed) event set info: Historical-earthquakes_pt_1972_PICs_M5p5.csv
4. Historic event set population impacted by MMI and PGA category: TCAT_historical_all-14-PICs

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