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[FEAT] Adds t, ged, normal-skewed and laplace distributions for fitting ARIMA#1113

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feat/arima_likelihood
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[FEAT] Adds t, ged, normal-skewed and laplace distributions for fitting ARIMA#1113
nasaul wants to merge 13 commits into
mainfrom
feat/arima_likelihood

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@nasaul nasaul commented Mar 12, 2026

This PR's adds different likelihoods functions for fitting the ARIMA family models.

  • Implemented different likelihood functions
  • Adds testing

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codspeed-hq Bot commented Mar 12, 2026

Merging this PR will not alter performance

✅ 38 untouched benchmarks


Comparing feat/arima_likelihood (90359fc) with main (22d39b3)

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Comment thread python/statsforecast/arima.py Outdated
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nasaul commented Mar 13, 2026

@elephaint I think that if we proceed with this, then your C++ implementation will need to incorporate this. Any opinions on this?

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Left some minor comments

Comment thread python/statsforecast/arima.py Outdated
Comment thread python/statsforecast/utils.py Outdated
Comment thread python/statsforecast/utils.py Outdated
fit["ic"] = fit["aic"] = fit["bic"] = fit["aicc"] = math.inf
fit["sigma2"] = np.nansum(fit["residuals"] ** 2) / (nstar - npar + 1)
if distribution == "normal":
fit["sigma2"] = np.nansum(fit["residuals"] ** 2) / (nstar - npar + 1)
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may I check that is the computation 'sigma2' only relevant for normal distribution? Could this be available for the other distributions?

If sigma2 is not available (same for line 1407 tmp["sigma2"]), how does it affect the subsequent steps during the computations?

Comment thread python/statsforecast/arima.py
nasaul and others added 3 commits May 5, 2026 03:08
Co-authored-by: Jing-Qiang (JQ) Goh <gohjingqiang@gmail.com>
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3 participants