Add indicator update to recession paper

pmichaillat · pmichaillat · commit c30df202e606 · 2024-10-08T09:02:40.000-07:00
diff --git a/content/papers/16.md b/content/papers/16.md
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 ---
 title: "Has the Recession Started?" 
 date: 2024-09-09
-lastmod: 2024-09-16
+lastmod: 2024-10-08
 url: /16/
 tags: ["false positives", "job vacancies", "Michez rule", "nowcasting", "recession indicator", "recession probability", "recession threshold", "recessions",  "Sahm rule", "unemployment"]
 author: ["Pascal Michaillat","Emmanuel Saez"]
@@ -51,4 +51,10 @@ year = {2024},
 title = {Has the Recession Started?},
 number = {arXiv:2408.05856v2},
 url = {https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.05856}}
-```
+```
+
+---
+
+##### Related material
+
++ [Update of the recession indicator with September 2024 data](https://pmichaillat.substack.com/p/september-labor-market-update-0ca)
diff --git a/public/16/index.html b/public/16/index.html
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@
 <meta property="og:url" content="https://pascalmichaillat.org/16/" />
 <meta property="og:image" content="https://pascalmichaillat.org/16s.png" /><meta property="article:section" content="papers" />
 <meta property="article:published_time" content="2024-09-09T00:00:00+00:00" />
-<meta property="article:modified_time" content="2024-09-16T00:00:00+00:00" />
+<meta property="article:modified_time" content="2024-10-08T00:00:00+00:00" />
 
 <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" />
 <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://pascalmichaillat.org/16s.png" />
@@ -62,11 +62,11 @@
   "keywords": [
     "false positives", "job vacancies", "Michez rule", "nowcasting", "recession indicator", "recession probability", "recession threshold", "recessions", "Sahm rule", "unemployment"
   ],
-  "articleBody": " Paper Code and data Abstract To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator—the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the unemployment rate and its minimum over the past 12 months—and a similar indicator constructed with the vacancy rate—the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the vacancy rate and its maximum over the past 12 months. We then propose a two-sided recession rule: When our indicator reaches 0.3pp, a recession may have started; when the indicator reaches 0.8pp, a recession has started for sure. This new rule is triggered earlier than the Sahm rule: on average it detects recessions 0.8 month after they have started, while the Sahm rule detects them 2.1 months after their start. The new rule also has a better historical track record: it perfectly identifies all recessions since 1929, while the Sahm rule breaks down before 1960. With August 2024 data, our indicator is at 0.54pp, so the probability that the US economy is now in recession is 48%. In fact, the recession may have started as early as March 2024.\nFigure 2B: Construction of the minimum recession indicator in the United States, 1960–2024 Figure 4: Minimum indicator with two-sided recession rule in the United States, 1960–2024 Citation Michaillat, Pascal, and Emmanuel Saez. 2024. “Has the Recession Started?” arXiv:2408.05856v2. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.05856 .\n@techreport{MS24, author = {Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez}, year = {2024}, title = {Has the Recession Started?}, number = {arXiv:2408.05856v2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.05856}} ",
-  "wordCount" : "257",
+  "articleBody": " Paper Code and data Abstract To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator—the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the unemployment rate and its minimum over the past 12 months—and a similar indicator constructed with the vacancy rate—the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the vacancy rate and its maximum over the past 12 months. We then propose a two-sided recession rule: When our indicator reaches 0.3pp, a recession may have started; when the indicator reaches 0.8pp, a recession has started for sure. This new rule is triggered earlier than the Sahm rule: on average it detects recessions 0.8 month after they have started, while the Sahm rule detects them 2.1 months after their start. The new rule also has a better historical track record: it perfectly identifies all recessions since 1929, while the Sahm rule breaks down before 1960. With August 2024 data, our indicator is at 0.54pp, so the probability that the US economy is now in recession is 48%. In fact, the recession may have started as early as March 2024.\nFigure 2B: Construction of the minimum recession indicator in the United States, 1960–2024 Figure 4: Minimum indicator with two-sided recession rule in the United States, 1960–2024 Citation Michaillat, Pascal, and Emmanuel Saez. 2024. “Has the Recession Started?” arXiv:2408.05856v2. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.05856 .\n@techreport{MS24, author = {Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez}, year = {2024}, title = {Has the Recession Started?}, number = {arXiv:2408.05856v2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.05856}} Related material Update of the recession indicator with September 2024 data ",
+  "wordCount" : "268",
   "inLanguage": "en",
   "image":"https://pascalmichaillat.org/16s.png","datePublished": "2024-09-09T00:00:00Z",
-  "dateModified": "2024-09-16T00:00:00Z",
+  "dateModified": "2024-10-08T00:00:00Z",
   "author":[{
     "@type": "Person",
     "name": "Pascal Michaillat"
@@ -209,7 +209,13 @@ <h5 id="citation">Citation</h5>
 </span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#836c28">title</span> = <span style="color:#c41a16">{Has the Recession Started?}</span>,
 </span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#836c28">number</span> = <span style="color:#c41a16">{arXiv:2408.05856v2}</span>,
 </span></span><span style="display:flex;"><span><span style="color:#836c28">url</span> = <span style="color:#c41a16">{https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.05856}</span>}
-</span></span></code></pre></div>
+</span></span></code></pre></div><hr>
+<h5 id="related-material">Related material</h5>
+<ul>
+<li><a href="https://pmichaillat.substack.com/p/september-labor-market-update-0ca" target="_blank">Update of the recession indicator with September 2024 data</a>
+</li>
+</ul>
+
   </div>
 
   <footer class="post-footer">
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       <title>u* = √uv: The Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment in the United States</title>
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       <title>Modeling Migration-Induced Unemployment</title>
